Followers know I’m deeply suspicious of data from PCR mass testing. PCR fans might try to explain this analysis. 3 sets of data (PHE notifiable infectious disease…
… community symptom tracking & NHS triage classification of symptoms) all align in time but flatly contradict PCR “cases” data (which involves no symptoms). There are therefore three datasets all showing a second wave that begins in September, peaks two weeks later and… … returns to baseline by the end of September.
Apart from PCR tests are two other diagnostic tests available for COVID-19:
Lateral flow tests which test for viral proteins that form part of the viral particles themselves and will detect a current infection
Antibody testing… … which confirms infection two to five weeks afterward initial exposure.
Results of lateral flow testing in Liverpool and Merthyr Tydfil show a consistent positive rate of around 0.7-0.8%, at most a little higher that the 3rd party (independent) assessment f the operational… …rate (oFPR). I note that mass testing of over 15,000 lorry drivers stranded at Manston Airport pending testing before crossing the channel (after the ridiculously exaggerated Govt response to the ‘new variant’ of the virus) also showed positivity bang on the oFPR for rapid… …antigen testing (LFT). Keen readers will also recall that in thousands of Cambridge students, 40 or so were in pools found positive by PCR mass testing, but on retesting, 100% of them were negative. More important even that the total failure of diagnostic testing is that… …the students didn’t have the virus – none of them. Not just a few, but none. There’s a strong pattern here. On every occasion when the results of PCR mass testing are compared with any other measure – retesting by PCR, testing by an alternative method not subject to the… …flaws of PCR mass testing (over-amplification, cross contamination), multiple & independent measures of symptomatic disease, PCR mass testing FALLS ON ITS FACE. Come on, Lighthouse Labs staff. Stop pretending that your testing system measures anything at all. It’s simply… …not possible to trust your output. Are you aware that your output is being used to crush the life out of this country? Did you know that NO ONE is inspecting your facilities & methods? Worst of all, did you know that for months & months, those in charge of these Lighthouse… …Labs simply refuse to publish even an estimate of operational false positive rate? We do not know what fraction of tests come back positive, even if there is known to be no virus in the samples? Every test has an oFPR. We don’t know what it is for PCR mass testing in the… …current configuration. Its completely invalid to point to values for oFPR obtained for other PCR based testing systems. This because the main causes of false positives are contextual (volume of tests per day, experience of staff, etc). Did you know that all medical… …tests in use in the NHS have a data sheet, telling the physician how to interpret the test results? Without this basic information, which can be obtained easily in a single day without interfering with normal operation, it’s scientifically invalid to use the test at all, let.. …alone to do what’s being done: to tell us that every sample which is reported as positive is actually a “case”. When the prevalence of the virus is low, which looks to be a statement we can make with robust confidence, even a modest-looking oFPR means that ALMOST ALL… …POSITIVES ARE FALSE POSITIVES. I support the triple challenge made by others. Let’s have a sizeable set of samples be run through the secretive Lighthouse Labs PCR mass testing system, through LFT & through independent PCR Labs. An alternative is to permit independent… …scientists into the Lighthouse Labs to supervise placing of known-negative (virus-free, but completely blinded swab samples) among a normal day’s testing run. Until this has been done, I demand that PCR mass testing by halted. There’s very strong evidence that it’s very… ….badly wrong & further, there’s never been proper audit of what they’re doing. We don’t even know why those facilities exist at all. No one anywhere had industrial scale testing right after the starting gun. But by May, the NHS pathology labs got to 50,000 tests per day. By that time, the spring peak was well behind us. Imperial & it’s hopelessly unqualified team came up with their fantasy prediction of a huge 2nd wave, which is completely without precedent & not supported by any trove of scientific literature. But it seems that, based on the… …assumption that there would be a 2nd wave & so the then-prevailing view was that there was a need for much greater daily testing capacity. So the expensive notion of huge ‘PCR factories’ were set up, despite the fact this has never been done anywhere in the world. They were… …set up at breakneck speed but then staffed mostly by people who’ve never worked in labs before. Most of us were aghast at this, because PCR isn’t a technique for amateurs. According to those who’ve personally used this exquisitely sensitive technique, using staff so unused… …to lab work that they need to be taught how to use a pipette was always a recipe for disaster, both in terms of infection risk to themselves & colleagues as well as major risks to the absolutely essential end-to-end sample integrity. Now we learn that at least 20 staff at… …the Milton Keynes facility have become PCR positive themselves, something that seems likely to have been acquired at work. Previously, there was the unannounced inspections by the Health & Safety Executive, because there’d been reports of serious breaches & management simply.. …refused to return calls from HSE. Those inspections confirmed major failings in health & safety procedures including in training. Now look at the results: claims of tens of thousands of “cases” daily. Frankly, I have no confidence in their output & neither should you. Once… …you bring yourself to remove the labels off people & just take a long, cool look at the reality in the country. There’s just not much going on. Hospitals are less full than usual. Fewer people are dying of respiratory disease than usual. We’re being badly misled. I can… …understand those running these facilities are making lots of money. But the scientists in charge must address these challenges at speed. If they don’t, I recommend everyone them regard their attitude not as mere stubbornness but as a malign & deliberate policy to mislead.